AI-Generated Summary
Yes, ma’clock, the market’s recent turmoil, particularly in tech, has been driven by a combination of factors, including tariffs, global economic uncertainty, and the potential for demand destruction. Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities highlights the significant impact of tariffs on tech companies, especially those with heavy exposure to China, such as Apple, Nvidia, and semiconductor firms. He emphasizes that if tariffs remain in place, companies could face 15-20% cost increases, leading to margin compression and potential consumer price hikes. Ives suggests that investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals, such as Microsoft and Apple, which may weather the storm better due to their robust margins and ability to absorb costs. Additionally, he notes that while some defensive sectors like defense contractors have held up, the broader market is pricing in a recession, and investors should prepare for potential demand destruction and margin erosion in the coming months. The key takeaway is to focus on companies with long-term resilience and the ability to navigate these challenges effectively.
📜 Full Transcript
joining us. >> Yes, ma’am. >> Sounds like he just called the market bottom. >> Well, tech. Stocks posting their worst day in more than five years. The Nasdaq. Closing 6% lower today. Joining us now Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities global head of technology research. Dan, it looked pretty ugly. Out there today. You’re usually bullish on the potential for technology. But this picture is complicated not just by the dollar impact of the. >> Tariffs. >> But by what happens to brand America around the globe where even this software has to be sold now. >> Yeah. I mean, look. It’s a it’s. >> Essentially an economic Armageddon. >> You know, if. >> These tariffs stay in place. And the reality is talking in front of a microphone in. >> The 202. >> Area code is a lot different than the reality of moving the supply chain. And I think it speaks to our point that when you look at China. Exposed names from. Nvidia to Apple to any of the semi names, I mean, this this is as. Nervous as I’ve seen investors going back to, you know, Covid March 2020. >> So what. >> Do investors need to listen for on these earnings calls? What are the fundamental numbers to watch perhaps when it comes to margins getting squeezed. To understand what the real dynamics are going to be throughout the rest of 25, and where you can continue to get a valuation premium. >> So I think. >> There’s three things. >> I think. >> You have to look at one. >> I mean, Navarro talked on negotiations. >> You have. >> To assume that these tariffs don’t hold in their current form. If they hold in their current form that then essentially you have 15 to 20% demand destruction across the board in terms of cost that are actually going to have to come through. And then to that point, I don’t think a lot of companies even give guidance on their one Q conference calls given, you know, what we’ve seen in terms of the head scratching tariffs? The thing that you really have to focus on in terms like what demand destruction looks like in terms of when it comes to AI revolution, data center, build out inventory. And then of course, you start looking at consumer focus names like Apple. In terms of what that means for iPhones. The reality. >> Is. >> If you want if you want an iPhone made in the US and you want that for $3,500, we should make in the US, if you want it for $1,000, you keep it in China. So I think that’s these are all the issues that investors are trying to sort of game out. >> So in light of that, I’ll just use Apple as an example. There’s just this automatic assumption that any kind of price increase tied to 54% tariffs on goods imported that have been made in China, iPhones perhaps included in that is going to be pushed out to consumers. Is that is that actually going to be the case, especially if you look at an Apple that has pretty robust margins and maybe is going to absorb some of that cost? >> Yeah. Mark. >> If it was. >> A smaller tariff, that’s something maybe that they can absorb. But these are numbers I mean that that are I view as absurd. And I think many of you across tech. So there’s only whoever’s going to pay it. It’s the consumer. And that’s the reality. You get to buy tariffs all you want. Consumers are going to pay it on iPhones. They’re going to pay it on electronics. They’re going to pay it across the board. And that’s really what you’re seeing in terms of self I think right now tech stocks you can name like Apple essentially baking in numbers cuts 1,215%. And you. And margin erosion that could be more. So our view in terms of how we’re navigating this very similar financial crisis is COVID 2020 is that you have to look on the other side, assuming some sort of normalized earnings into 25 and even 2026. And those are the names, whether it’s Microsoft, Apple and some others, that’s how you navigate some, you know, looking at the scenarios in terms of how these play out. >> That’s interesting because we did get exemptions on semiconductors in the midst of these tariff announcements. But the other area, another area of the market that was very defensive today and held up relatively well were defense contractors themselves. Now, I realize, not necessarily the case for the palantir of the world, but in general, when you’re talking about some of these types of companies that are exposed to government revenues that maybe are a little more domestically focused in terms of the stocks they’ve built out, is that a place to be investing right now? >> Yeah, I mean, I think Palantir and others. But if you look at Lockheed and some of the primary. Yeah, no doubt those are the ones that held up. I think a lot better in terms of defensive. But I think devil’s in the details because the reality is when you look at the implementations, you look what comes from foreign perspective. You’re talking 40, 50%. A lot of these imitations from a hardware perspective and others. So that’s why our view is like what? And to your point, John, is like what are the second third derivatives? What’s the ripple effect. What the demand destruction is. I think investors if you look here, these stocks are baking in recession into these stocks. If you think it’s anything better and you’re basically saying some sort of game of high stakes poker and there will be negotiation, then, you know, these are the names that you ultimately buy